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Trump tariff threat creates opportunity for Canada 'to become much more resilient'ン

Trump tariff threat creates opportunity for Canada 'to become much more resilient'

The 30-day reprieve from Trump tariffs announced this week may have come as welcome news for consumers and businesses alike, but ongoing uncertainty will continue to weigh on investments. (AP Foto/Evan Vucci) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

The 30-day reprieve from Trump tariffs announced this week may have come as welcome news for consumers and businesses alike. But ongoing uncertainty will continue to weigh on investments and should be a wake-up call for policymakers and businesses, experts say.

Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would impose a 25 per cent tariff on non-energy imports from Canada, and a 10 per cent duty on Canadian energy. Late Monday afternoon, he walked back the threat, agreeing to a pause for at least 30 days while the two countries work on border-related issues.

While the reprieve may have avoided a worst-case tariff scenario, Robert Asselin, senior vice-president of policy at the Business Council of Canada, says it’s “not much of a relief” for businesses.

“The uncertainty itself creates a situation where we don’t really know what we’re faced with going forward. It’s almost like a tariff is already in place,” Asselin said in an interview with Yahoo Finance Canada.

“Maybe it’s not 25 per cent. I’ll quantify it as maybe 10 per cent. Essentially, investors in this climate of uncertainty… are just going to wait for more clarity, for more certainty.”

But he says the reprieve is “absolutely a wake-up call,” particularly for policymakers.

“In a situation like this, there’s an opportunity to become much more resilient, and do the stuff that we’ve been complacent about on economic growth that will allow us to get through this crisis,” Asselin added.

“I think what we are lacking right now is an economic plan that will put us on a path so that we don’t have these dependencies, where we go through these existential crises with the U.S.”

That’s a message echoed by the Chamber of Commerce. In a speech given in Winnipeg on Tuesday, president and CEO Candace Laing called for the government to reconvene Parliament and focus on addressing “the critical roadblocks that have until now left us far too dependent on trade with the United States.” These include identifying and removing internal trade barriers, expanding trade infrastructure to help reach more overseas markets, reducing red tape, and lowering taxes on businesses and individuals so as to be competitive with the U.S.

How businesses are coping with the uncertainty

In the meantime, many businesses have been preparing for the possibility of tariffs since shortly after Trump was elected, says Colin Mowatt, a tax policy leader at PwC Canada. Mowatt works with large public and private companies, including multinationals and private equity funds, largely in the engineering, construction and product industries.

“Unfortunately with tariffs, there’s no quick fix,” he said in an interview with Yahoo Finance Canada.

“There are so many variables, you have to get good at scenario planning.”

Mowatt says that for some of the companies he works with, the 30-day pause will allow them to prepare more for the possibility that blanket tariffs are enacted, by stockpiling materials or moving products into the U.S. in advance of the tariffs.

“Now, they have a much better, clearer idea of what these tariffs may be,” Mowatt said, noting that many companies had assumed the tariffs would be more selective and not blanket tariffs, as was proposed by Trump.

But for many companies, particularly those involved in just-in-time manufacturing, stockpiling and moving products in advance isn't possible.

“One thing that companies are doing in this intervening period is getting their ducks in a row around cash and starting to think about any cost optimization they can do,” Mowatt said.

“One of the dynamics is they’re going to want to accumulate some cash and reconsider (acquisitions.) For a lot of companies, it’s not just the tariffs but the low Canadian dollar that has increased the cost of acquiring so many things. They now have to factor that into their business planning.”

National Bank geopolitical analyst Angelo Katsoras said in a note on Monday the longer the threat of tariffs and trade negotiations persist, "the riskier investing in Canada and Mexico will become for companies looking for guaranteed access to the U.S. market." He says the ongoing threat will "create uncertainty that could have a profound long-term impact on the stability businesses need to make investment decisions."

Asselin compares the current situation Canada is facing with the U.S. to going through a personal hardship.

“At the beginning it’s hard, but you come out of it in much better shape,” Asselin said.

“I think Canada has the resolve, the pride, the talent and resources to get through this. We are not a third-rate country, we are a G7 country. We can pull through this. It will be difficult, but you need resolve and you need a plan.”

Alicja Siekierska is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow her on X @alicjawithaj.

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